Ten existential threats facing theatre and ten potential solutions

An attempt to name some longer-term pressures that shape whether people keep coming to theatre, and to explore what practical responses might look like.

Most of us working in theatre are understandably focused on the short term. Next week’s sales, next month’s funding application, next season’s programme, and the day-to-day reality of delivering work with limited time and capacity. Those pressures are real and they deserve attention.

At the same time, there’s a longer-term story unfolding. It’s tied to wider economic trends, behavioural shifts, and changes in how people discover work, build confidence and form the habit of attending over a lifetime.

By existential threats, I don’t mean sudden collapse. I mean the forces that shape whether theatre remains something people keep returning to year after year. Some act directly on audiences and others limit what organisations can realistically do in response. Some of these pressures overlap and reinforce each other.

To solve problems, you first have to name them. This is an attempt to bring some of the bigger, longer-term pressures out of the fog.

Over the next few weeks, I’ll take these threats one at a time and share some practical thoughts on ways forward. The point isn’t to overwhelm anyone. It’s an attempt to understand what’s changing, because a hopeful, coherent way forward starts with clarity.

I’ve chosen ten because you have to start somewhere, and because these feel like the pressures that will have the greatest impact on long-term attendance.

I certainly don’t have all the answers, but I believe the best way to navigate significant structural challenges is to start a conversation. If you think something important is missing, or any of the ten are misplaced, I’d genuinely welcome comments and examples.

The following list is in no particular order, and some of the points will cross over. I’ve separated them out because I think each one calls for a different response.

Ten existential threats facing theatre

1. The squeeze on new work and experimentation
Familiar, commercial work is thriving right now but is under sustained financial pressure, so risk-taking becomes harder to justify. When margins are thin, a miss is more painful, and the temptation is to lean towards familiarity.

New work and experimentation aren’t an artistic indulgence - they’re part of how future audiences are formed. How can bold new work thrive when the incentive structures don’t align, and what impact could ignoring this have on future audiences?

2. Erosion of early exposure to theatre
Early exposure is one of the strongest predictors of long-term theatre attendance. If live performance is part of your childhood, it’s easier to come back to later because it feels familiar and low-risk.

With drama taking up less space in the curriculum, and with tickets and travel getting more expensive, fewer people are getting those early experiences. The impact shows up later. Attendance can look fine in the short term, while the future pipeline quietly narrows and it becomes harder to replace people who drop away.

3. An exhausted, demoralised, under-resourced workforce
Teams are tired, roles have expanded, and timelines have tightened. Even where good ideas exist there isn’t always the capacity to implement them properly.

Many people choose to work in the industry because they care deeply about the work, but they can quickly find themselves dealing with long hours, low pay, and job descriptions that keep growing. The challenge lies in building an environment that’s fair and rewarding, and that gives people enough time and energy to do more than just get through the week. How do we create the conditions where people can innovate, feel supported and stay in the sector?

4. Economic pressure and the breaking of attendance habits
People haven’t just got less money, they’re making different choices. Attendance has become more selective and, for many, less frequent. Theatre becomes a treat rather than a routine.

In the short term, income can sometimes hold up through fewer but higher-value bookings. The longer-term risk is that frequency drops, loyalty weakens, and confidence fades - especially for those already on the brink of deciding whether theatre is worth the effort. How do we rebuild the habit of attending, rather than just chasing one-off transactions?

5. Rising costs and limited ticket price headroom
In many contexts, ticket prices are already high relative to local incomes and expectations. That limits how much more can be passed on without pushing people towards fewer visits, later booking, or opting out entirely.

Pricing still has levers, from clearer structures and stronger value cues to better routes in for people who need them. But if the ticket can’t carry the full burden of rising costs, the question becomes broader. Where else can income come from, and how do we do it in a way that feels fair and easy to understand?

6. Drifting cultural relevance in a changing population
The UK is changing and, in many places, the next generation has different cultural reference points from the audiences theatres have historically relied on. If the offer and the framing don’t connect with the place a theatre sits in, then growth becomes harder because fewer people see theatre as part of their cultural world, or feel confident that it is for them.

How can theatres ensure their community offer, the work on stage, and the voices shaping it feel credible and meaningful locally, while keeping a clear sense of purpose and a coherent programme?

7. Structural barriers to organisational risk-taking
This sits behind a lot of other issues. Even when an organisation wants to take risks, the conditions don’t always make it possible. High fixed costs, limited reserves, rising production expense and short planning cycles all make experimentation harder to sustain.

In this environment, predictability often wins out - not because people lack ambition, but because the downside of getting it wrong is too severe. That affects programming, but it also affects staffing structures, team development, and investment in new ways of working. How do we create enough breathing room to try things? To learn, and adapt? All without putting the organisation in danger?

8. Growth-era success metrics in a contraction-era reality
Many organisations are still judged, and judge themselves, by growth-era assumptions: more attenders, more shows, more income year on year. In a tighter environment, those measures can push behaviour that looks busy but weakens resilience.

By making volume the main marker of success, we risk over-programming, discounting by default, and stretching already tired teams further. What would change if success was measured in a different way? One that rewarded retention, frequency, audience confidence, and sustainable delivery - alongside income? We also need to acknowledge that not everything can be measured.

9. Shrinking and ageing populations
It’s tempting to talk about population as a national story, but most venues operate within local catchments. Even where overall headcount grows, the age mix is shifting and some areas are projected to see slower growth or decline over time.

Replacing churn becomes harder when the pool behind today’s audience is smaller, older, or changing shape. Retention and frequency start to matter even more, and so does the work of building confidence in new attenders. If catchments tighten, what does a sensible long-term audience strategy look like? And how do we plan for it without slipping into doom?

10. Short-term planning systems applied to long-term demand problems
Audience habits form over years. Trust, familiarity, and routine build gradually - often through repeated exposure and consistent signals about what an organisation stands for. But many organisations are forced to plan, report, and justify decisions on short cycles; with quick results expected.

That mismatch makes it easy for long-term work to be postponed because short-term survival always wins. Over time, the organisation can end up doing more activity, but with less compounding impact. How do we protect the work that takes longer to pay off, and still meet the very real pressure for short-term results?

Other threats that didn’t make the cut
None of these sit neatly as single threats in their own right, but they amplify several of the points above, and they will no doubt be a through-line in many of the proposed solutions.

• Funding and public policy

• Buildings and infrastructure

• The collapse of local media

• Technology and AI

• Attention and time scarcity

• Talent pipelines and skills

What happens next
Naming these threats won’t solve them, but it can support a shared language and a positive way forward. It also makes it easier to talk honestly about what needs protecting, what can change, and what might need to stop.

Over the coming weeks, I’ll take one threat at a time and propose practical responses. If you have additions, objections, or examples from your own organisation, I’d love to hear them.